Sometimes I hate being right
About this time each year, I get the same old feeling. I sit here waiting to be proven wrong, but alas, my assessments and predictions are always disappointingly accurate, give or take a game or two. It looks like I was premature in my suggestion that Smoltzie & Chipper just go ahead & set their tee times for today, but I don't think I'll be wrong in predicting that the series won't go past today. It appears that they are planning to go with Hudson, & that can't bode well for them right now. If I recall, they've had some success against Backe, & they might possibly get to him for a few runs early. But how many runds will Hudson need today? Five? Seven? Ten?

I don't mean to sound pessimistic -- really, I don't. These guys, most of whom were in AA or A ball last season, have had a hell of a season, & their uncanny poise & sheer talent give lots of hope for the immediate future -- at least until it's time for those first contract negotiations. But I think they've reached the end of the line this season. I don't think they'll go without a fight; but what will kill them will be the weakness that has plagued them for the entire 2005 season: a pitching staff that is full of holes, especially in the bullpen.

So there you are. Hope they prove me wrong.

Same shit, different year
As I sit here watching the Braves languish in the late innings of this game, down 5-3 with nine more outs left & no apparent fire in the furnace, I find it easy to forget that it's the year 2005 & not 2004, 2001, 1998, or any other of the past 14 years except for 1995. Sure, a lot of people are going to say that this year was different -- a relatively low-budget rebuilding year that turned into a reloading year, when a crew of rookies and an Andruw Jones who finally lived up to his potential injected fresh excitement into the staid corporate atmosphere of the Braves organization and returned meat to the seats of Turner Field.

But as I write this, I can see that despite the fact that this is a playoff game, those seats are not full [Braves just went down 1-2-3 in the 7th. Six more outs to go now.]; because the fans know that they are going to fold, & those seats are a damn expensive perspective on an implosion that occurs every year at this time [Rietsma's in the game now, so the plug is as good as pulled]. I mean, it's not like Halley's Comet. It's more like a Lindsay Lohan car accident or another stupid, desperate Madonna stunt. It's predictable, & unbelievably trite.

10-3 in the 8th, & the Astros are still batting. The Braves will be home playing golf by Sunday.

Waiting Game
It appears right now that Bobby may not announce his postseason roster untilWednesday morning. Details as they unfold.

Clinched!
Now what?

Stay tuned. I think I might be back.

The Stretch
Yeah, I know that they didn't look too hot today, & that there's still nearly a month left in the season, but I'm going to go out on a limb right now & say that the Braves have the division title all but sewn up right now. Let's do the math: The Braves are now 78-59, with 25 games left in the season. The Phillies & Nationals also have 25 games left. The Mets & Marlins have 26. Let's say the Braves go 12-13 for the rest of the season: that means that in order to catch them in the standings, the Phillies would have to go 17-8; the Marlins 18-8; the Nationals 19-6; the Mets 20-6. Stranger things have happened, but that's still a tall order for any team in the NL West.

The postseason is another story. More on that later.

Catching up
I just watched Andruw launch one onto Waveland Avenue for his 40th homer in an otherwise lackluster performance, & it moved me to put down my paying work & instead write a catch-up entry to a blog that absolutely no one, to my knowledge, reads. Yet such is the nature of my congnitive process, like one of those machines that spits out lottery numbers on ping pong balls. You never know what's going to come out of it.

Anyway, I've been derailed by a few things. First of all, I had my roof replaced a couple of weeks ago & in the process lost my satellite dish. It took a week to get it remounted, during which I had to resort to listening to the Braves on the radio -- which actually wasn't so bad, since that's how I caught Reds games as a kid growing up in southwest Virginia. That was in the '70s, the days of the Big Red Machine, and most of us were Reds fans; but none of the TV stations in the area carried the syndicated Reds games, & there were no superstations back then to cut into local markets -- not until Ted purchased WTCG-TV 17 in, what, '76? '77? Anyway, the Braves were always my second favorite team because of geography and Henry Aaron; but they profoundly sucked back then.

But I ramble. There's not much to say about the present, except that they'd better solve their pitching problems soon. Doesn't look like Devine is the answer -- it's simply too soon for him. Farnsworth: Bad back. Reitsma & Kolb: just plain bad. Brower -- a dead ringer for The Tick -- in Richmond. Powell: damn. Might as well buy Foster a mop & bucket to keep in his locker.

Happy 47th to Julio. Enough for now. The more you drink, the better I sound.

I Spoke Too Soon
Farnsworth from the Cubs for Colon and Zach Miner. Not earth-shattering, but significant. Looks like they're going to use him as a setup guy for Reitsma, a role with which he is familiar. Perhaps he'll work out. He's a big guy with a repuation for being a hothead, and if nothing else he'll make good muscle for when Washington comes back to town at the end of the month.

Up to Speed
To whomever might be out there, my apologies for neglecting to post for a while. I'm not sure why I decided to start a blog when I'm having trouble keeping up with my other sites. Impulsivity, perhaps, or just a desire to experiment with the medium. Anyway, funny thing about these blogs: they don't update themselves.

Let's start with the last-minute trades: there aren't any, and there might not be any before the door slams at four this afternoon. Why? Because what they have right now is destroying the opposition. The past week or so, they have looked like the Big Red Machine of the mid-'70s -- a hulking but agile vehicle of destruction capable of turning around and coming back after its prey if it missed it the first time. No one turned their backs on those guys. If they couldn't win the game outright, they'd find a way to steal it. Especially Pete. In addition to being the most ferocious player (no double-entendre intended) in the game, Pete was the king of the deke. There's no telling how many runs he saved just by yelling "foul ball" on shots hit down the line. And although it was never widely publicized, they, like many other MLB teams of the day, believed in better living through chemistry (greenies, that is -- no "clear" or "cream" for the upwardly-mobile pro athlete in those days). But they were more than just tricksters and speed freaks. They were masters of fundamentals with a fearsome offense and a napoleonic manager that was willing to throw his entire bullpen at any lineup on any given night. They were never, ever, out of a ball game.

But I digress. Or do I? There are, after all, some similarities between the Big Red Machine of the mid-'70s and the Braves of the mid-whatever-the-hell-decade-this-is, the most glaring of which is miserly ownership. The first thing they did after winning the World Series for the second year in row in '76 was to trade Tony Perez to the Expos for an aging journeyman starter and a reliever with a 100-mph fastball that he couldn't get over the plate to save his ass. Maybe Leo could have done something with them, but Russ Nixon couldn't. The two of them together could not equal a pimple on the great Tony Perez's ass, but they were cheaper than Tony. Much cheaper. They were counting on Tony's backup Dan Driessen, who had turned heads with his performance as DH, to step into his shoes. He didn't. I think he hit about .230 the following year.

My point is, such could be the fate of the Braves in a couple of years under the niggardly ownership of AOL-Time-Whatever-the_F---. Jeff Francoeur, for example, is putting up Rookie of the Year numbers (he needs 130 at-bats & has 42, so he will likely be eligible if he plays every day as Bobby says he will) and everyone is going nuts about him; but one of these days he will be quite expensive, and when the Braves don't pony up, he will go elsewhere. Likewise for Kyle Davies (remember Millwood?), Kelly Johnson, Macay McBride, Blaine Boyer, and possibly even Wilson Betemit. Have I left anybody out? Probably. Thus my point is further illustrated.

I hate to be a doomsayer during good times, and that's not what I'm trying to be here. The way the Braves have done business has worked for them, and they will likely have a competitive team for many years to come if their farm system remains healthy and they don't suffer any more cut in payroll. The latter "if" is, unfortunately, the bigger one.

As I write this, the Braves are tied for first place in the NL East, which they accomplished by not playing last night while the Nationals lost. Tonight the Nats are down 8-0 to the Astros in the 7th with Clemens still on the mound. So far, so good on a Fri. night.

Gryboski's trade to the Rangers was unexpected, but no great shock. I do believe that they could have gotten more for him than a questionable prospect who got busted down a level in the minors last year and is going to Myrtle Beach for the remainder of the season. I've heard a lot of good things about Macay McBride, but how many more times can the Braves be expected to get lucky with their minor-league talent? I realize, of course, that there's more than just luck at work here, and most of the team's success is due to their juggernaut of a farm system. But despite their obvious talent, luck is a huge, huge factor at this point in these guys' careers. Let's see how long it holds out for them.

West Coast Series
Although I have built and maintained my own websites for years, this is my first foray into blogging, and right now I'm regretting it. Why did I decide to open this blog? What the hell did I expect to gain from it, except maybe a little extra traffic for my other sites? Did I even think I would get that? Why do I have this compulsion to develop useless web space? Why am I asking myself all these fucking questions?

Enough. It's time for a little stream-of-consciousness action while watching a few innings of this west-coast game. Frank's boys already won -- victory a must -- Phil Niekro's nephew starting at first for the Giants -- Who are these umps? -- only one I recognize is Larry Young, the crew chief -- Is Furcal trade bait? -- he looked horrible on that last swing, everything flying open toward first -- Kelly Johnson continues to look good -- Giles .750 lifetime against Schmidt after that 2B -- Andruw less so, but drives in Johnson w/groundout -- the infield's ability to turn two has been a tremendous asset -- Will the Braves be the only team in the NL East to lose tonight?

Drowsiness setting in, tomorrow will come too early. I'll check the score in the morning.

UPDATE: They blew it. How the hell are they supposed to win the division without a bulpen?